Main continuous contract of silicon metal rebounds upward, spot price stabilizes [SMM Silicon Industry Weekly Review]

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SMM reported on May 15:Silicon Metal:

This week, the decline in spot silicon metal prices narrowed and prices stabilized, with the main futures contract in the futures market recovering upwards. As of May 15, SMM east China oxygen-blown #553 silicon was priced at 9,000-9,200 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW. #441 silicon was priced at 9,300-9,400 yuan/mt, down 50 yuan/mt WoW. The main Si2506 futures contract held up well, trading near 8,300-8,500 yuan/mt, and closing at 8,410 yuan/mt at the end of the day on the 15th, up 95 yuan/mt WoW. This week, the main futures contract rose slightly, with some suppliers standing firm on quotes, pushing the transaction center higher than last week. However, it was difficult to close deals at high prices, with limited fluctuations in the transaction center. Spot order transactions from alloy and export users in the market were moderate.

The operating rate of polysilicon enterprises on the demand side was basically stable. During the week, some polysilicon enterprises in Xinjiang released tenders for silicon powder, and it is expected that more silicon powder orders will be released next week. The operating rate of silicone enterprises remained stable this week and is expected to remain the same next week, with silicone monomer enterprises having no further plans for production cuts or maintenance. The operating rate of aluminum-silicon alloy enterprises remained stable. After silicon prices stabilized and the futures market held up well, spot order purchases of silicon metal were more active during the week.

Based on supply-demand balance calculations, the surplus in Q1 is expected to be around 45,000 mt. From April to May, both supply and demand were weak, and the supply-demand balance shifted towards slight destocking. However, as it takes time for industry inventory to be drawn down, the fundamental weakness has not changed, and there is insufficient upward driving force for silicon metal prices. In the short term, spot silicon metal prices are expected to consolidate at lows.

Polysilicon:This week, the mainstream transaction prices for N-type recharging polysilicon in the market were 37-42 yuan/kg, with the N-type polysilicon price index at 37 yuan/kg. Early in the week, major polysilicon producers stood firm on quotes, but prices later pulled back again in quotes to crystal pulling plants. Currently, the expected transaction price for mixed polysilicon from major producers is around 36 yuan/kg. An industry meeting was held again on Wednesday to discuss matters related to production cuts. Currently, polysilicon production in May is expected to be around 94,000 mt. Prices in the downstream market have been falling more frequently, and there is still upward pressure on prices in the future market.

Wafer: This week, domestic N-type 18Xmm wafers were priced at 0.95 yuan/piece, N-type 210R wafers at 1.1 yuan/piece, and N-type 210mm wafers at 1.3 yuan/piece. The overall market sentiment was poor, with downstream users commonly driving down prices, causing wafer prices to fall again. Taking the 183 type as an example, individual large-volume low-price quotes have dropped as low as 0.93 yuan/piece. In May, some wafer enterprises further {{cut production}} in the early stage. Currently, domestic wafer production is expected to exceed 55GW, and global production is expected to exceed 58GW.

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